Rate of COVID-19 diseases decreased slightly across Germany last week
Experts recently pointed out that measures to curb the spread of coronavirus are having an effect in Austria and that the spread of the disease has been slowed down. There is now positive news from Germany too. The rate of COVID-19 diseases fell slightly across Germany in the past week.
Schools and kindergartens have been closed for weeks and sporting events have been canceled. The aim of these and other measures is to reduce the number of social contacts and thus infections and new cases of SARS-CoV-2, according to the “Corona Blog” by Prof. Dr. Klaus Wmerung from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU). The measures have apparently brought something.
Hoping for a decrease in the growth rate
According to a report by the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU), the rate of COVID-19 diseases caused by the coronavirus in Germany fell from an average of 27 percent to 21 percent per day from Monday to Friday last week.
There is also hope that the growth rate will continue to decrease this week due to the measures adopted by the federal and state governments.
Economists from JGU and the University of Regensburg came to these results by applying a statistical method commonly used in labor market research to the COVID-19 figures published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI).
The decline could be due to measures taken by the federal and state governments
Following a federal-state resolution of March 13, no Bundesliga games have taken place since March 14, and schools and kindergartens have been closed since March 16.
"If you take into account the usual incubation period of around five days and a further period of around three days until the person concerned has been to the doctor and the possible illness has been reported to the RKI, the first effects of these measures should be visible this week," said the Economist Prof. Klaus Wammlung, who was involved in the statistical analysis on the part of the JGU.
If the growth rate actually breaks on one of the coming days, the model used by the researchers would have to wait until the end of this week to be able to say with certainty whether the decline is due to the measures taken by the federal and state governments is based.
"Even if the measured growth rates should be significantly lower on one or the other day, this does not have to be a systematic, that is, permanent, effect," explains Wammlung.
Individual values could be strongly determined by random influences, for example more or less available test capacities or measurement errors. W absolute assumes "next Friday we will know with 95 percent certainty whether the measures taken by the federal and state governments on March 13 were successful". (ad)
Author and source information
This text corresponds to the requirements of the medical literature, medical guidelines and current studies and has been checked by medical doctors.